Early chill signals winter’s arrival in Kashmir

· Shopian records season's lowest at minus 0.9°C · Srinagar at 2°C, Leh plunges to minus 4.2°C · MeT predicts rain, snow over higher reaches from Nov 10 · Dry winter? Too early to say, say experts · Experts say too early to predict dry winter Srinagar, Nov 07: Winter is beginning to tighten its grip on Kashmir, with temperatures hovering around the freezing point in several parts of the Valley and residents waking up to increasingly cold mornings. On November 6, Shopian district of south Kashmir recorded the season's lowest minimum temperature at minus 0.9 degrees Celsius, while Pulwama also slipped below zero, signalling a steady intensification of the chill. The cold was particularly pronounced in south Kashmir and higher altitude areas. According to temperature data reported on November 7, Srinagar recorded a minimum of two degrees Celsius, while Qazigund also settled at 2 degrees. Pulwama recorded minus 0.3 degrees and Kokeranag 0.2 degrees Celsius. Srinagar airport recorded 0.8 degrees Celsius, while Sonamarg settled at 0.6 degrees. Gulmarg recorded 1.2 degrees, Kupwara 1.5 degrees, and Budgan and Konibal in Pampore 1.1 degrees each. IN Ladakh, Leh recorded minus 4.2 degrees Celsius, followed by Kargil at minus 1.4degrees and Nubra Valley at minus 0.9 degrees. The falling night temperatures follow a spell of largely dry weather. Clear skies allow heat accumulated during the day to escape rapidly after sunset, leading to a sharper fall in temperatures. The effect is particularly noticeable in open areas and higher-altitude locations, where night temperatures can approach or drop below freezing even when daytime conditions remain relatively comfortable. Director, Meteorological Department, Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, said that winter has almost set in across the region. The department expects the prevailing dry spell to continue until November 9, but a change in weather conditions is likely from November 10. The anticipated precipitation is being watched closely by farmers and orchardists, particularly as the region moves towards the peak winter period. The timing and distribution of rain and snowfall will be important for agriculture, horticulture and the Valley's broader water requirements. Director, Ladakh Meteorological Department, Sonam Lotus said that according to the global models, it seems that it will be a mild winter. “But still, we cannot conclude it at this stage,” Lotus said. He pointed out that Western Disturbances and other atmospheric patterns would play a critical role in determining the season's actual weather. Independent weatherman Faizan Arif, who tracks international forecasting systems, said he examines several models before preparing his weather assessments for Kashmir. “Each day, I go through reports by UKMO, GFS, CMC GDPS, ECMWF, ICON, Access Global and others to understand the weather pattern and then try to put forward a weather prediction report based on the mean of all of them,” Arif said. “It is too early to predict how winter will behave this season, let's wait and watch.” The experts' assessments underline an important distinction--a few cold nights do not necessarily determine the character of an entire winter. The frequency and strength of Western Disturbances, their interaction with larger atmospheric patterns and the availability of moisture will influence how much rain and snow the region receives in the coming months, especially December and January.