Three generations, three revolts: National Conference’s 80-year political battle against the Abdullah family

The National Conference (NC), one of Jammu and Kashmir’s oldest political parties, is once again witnessing an internal revolt against the Abdullah family. Nearly two dozen party legislators have openly raised the banner of rebellion against Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and party president Dr Farooq Abdullah, while former Srinagar Lok Sabha MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi has taken the confrontation a step further by resigning from the party and his parliamentary seat. What makes the latest political crisis particularly significant is its historical context. This is not the first time that the Abdullah family has faced an open revolt within the National Conference. In fact, over the past eight decades, the party has witnessed three major rebellions against three generations of the Abdullah family—from its founder Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, to his son Dr Farooq Abdullah, and now his grandson Omar Abdullah. The unfolding crisis raises a fundamental question: Is the National Conference heading towards another historic split, or will Dr Farooq Abdullah succeed in containing the rebellion before it threatens the stability of the government? The first major rebellion against the Abdullah family dates back to August 1953, when Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, the founder of the National Conference and then Prime Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, was removed from office. At that time, Jammu and Kashmir had a Prime Minister rather than a Chief Minister, as the constitutional nomenclature had not yet been changed. Sheikh Abdullah’s government was dismissed on August 8, 1953, amid serious political differences with the Centre and allegations that he was pursuing an independent political course for Kashmir, including the possibility of independence and contacts with Pakistan. On August 9, 1953, Sheikh Abdullah was arrested and Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, his close associate and then Deputy Prime Minister, was appointed in his place. Bakshi’s political break with Sheikh Abdullah marked the beginning of a major division within the National Conference. A section of the party's legislators supported the new leadership, while Sheikh Abdullah remained in detention for nearly 22 years, apart from periods of release. In 1975, following the historic Indira-Sheikh Accord, Sheikh Abdullah returned to power as Chief Minister. The then Congress Chief Minister, Mir Qasim, resigned to facilitate his return. The 1953 episode became the first major example of a political revolt that fundamentally altered the leadership of Jammu and Kashmir. The second major rebellion against the Abdullah family occurred on July 2, 1984, when 12 legislators withdrew their support from the government headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah. The political crisis had been building for months. Farooq Abdullah was facing growing opposition from within his own party, but he failed to address the grievances of the dissident legislators. The political atmosphere of that period was also marked by controversy surrounding Farooq Abdullah's personal style and public image. His association with film personalities, including actress Shabana Azmi, and his public motorcycle outings became subjects of political and media discussion. Shabana Azmi was later associated with the popular description of Farooq Abdullah as the "Disco Chief Minister". However, the fall of his government was the result of a political and legislative revolt rather than these social controversies. With 12 legislators withdrawing support, Farooq Abdullah lost his majority in the 78-member Assembly. Governor Jagmohan dismissed his government, paving the way for another dramatic political realignment. His brother-in-law, Ghulam Mohammad Shah, led the rebellion and formed a government with Congress support. Shah remained Chief Minister for approximately 20 months, until his government was dismissed in March 1986. He became popularly known as "Gul Shah", while his tenure was also associated with the controversial political expression "Gul Curfew" because he did not allow protests in Kashmir and put Srinagar city under strict curfew. He was known as the best administrator during his 20-month tenure. The 1984 revolt demonstrated that even a powerful political family could lose control of its own legislators when internal grievances were allowed to accumulate. Eighty years after Sheikh Abdullah founded the National Conference, and more than four decades after Farooq Abdullah lost power following an internal rebellion, the third major confrontation has emerged against Omar Abdullah. This time, nearly 24 National Conference legislators and one Member of Parliament have reportedly joined hands to challenge the leadership of both Omar Abdullah and his father, Dr Farooq Abdullah. The irony is that the rebellion gathered momentum at a time when Omar Abdullah was occupied with his personal life and his reported second marriage to television journalist Nidhi Razdan in Delhi. At the forefront of the political challenge was Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a prominent Shia leader and the National Conference MP from Srinagar. On November 3, Ruhullah resigned from the National Conference as well as his Lok Sabha membership, accusing the Abdullah leadership of betraying the people of Kashmir after securing votes in the 2024 Assembly elections. Ruhullah's principal allegation is that the National Conference sought public support by promising to fight for the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A, besides restoring Jammu and Kashmir's statehood. However, he argues that after forming the government, the Abdullah leadership has effectively pushed the demand for the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A into the background and is now concentrating primarily on the restoration of statehood. The issue has become a major source of political dissatisfaction among a section of the party's legislators and supporters. The dissident legislators have placed several demands before Omar Abdullah and Dr Farooq Abdullah, making it clear that they want substantial changes in both the party organisation and the government. Their principal demand is the immediate removal of Chief Minister's Advisor Nasir Aslam Wani, who is considered one of Omar Abdullah's closest associates. Wani previously served as Home Minister during Omar Abdullah's earlier tenure as Chief Minister and continues to enjoy considerable influence within the Chief Minister's inner circle. The dissidents are also reportedly seeking changes in the Chief Minister's political team, including the role of Rajya Sabha MP Shammi Oberoi, and have raised questions about Deputy Chief Minister Surinder Choudhary. Another major demand is a Cabinet reshuffle. The legislators want ministers who have been in office for the past two years to be replaced with leaders having a clean public image and a stronger political standing. They also want the National Conference to revive its political campaign for the restoration of Article 370, Article 35A and full statehood for Jammu and Kashmir. The dissident group reportedly met on October 30 at the residence of Lolab MLA Qaisar Jamsheed Lone 8n Srinagar . During the meeting, the legislators decided that no member would independently negotiate with the party leadership or take a separate political decision. Instead, they would collectively maintain pressure on the leadership until their demands were addressed. One of the immediate triggers for their resentment was Omar Abdullah's public statement that the decision regarding Cabinet appointments had already been taken. The Chief Minister reportedly remarked that legislators were sending their biodata through WhatsApp, making telephone calls and using political pressure to secure ministerial positions. The statement reportedly offended several legislators, who felt that their political concerns and grievances were being dismissed as an exercise in ministerial lobbying. The biggest question now confronting Jammu and Kashmir politics is whether the rebellion can actually bring down Omar Abdullah's government or whether Dr Farooq Abdullah will manage to extinguish the political fire within the party. Political observers believe that the government faces no immediate threat unless the BJP succeeds in engineering a major political realignment through what is commonly described as 'Operation Lotus'. Dr Farooq Abdullah has reportedly convened a meeting with the dissident legislators in Srinagar on Friday, November 6. Omar Abdullah is also expected to participate in the meeting. The meeting is being viewed as crucial because the party leadership will have to decide whether to accommodate the dissidents' demands or risk allowing the internal confrontation to escalate. Among the dissident legislators is Mubarak Gul, a six-time MLA and former Speaker of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. He was reportedly preparing to address a press conference in Srinagar on November 4 but did not go ahead with it following efforts by the party leadership to manage the situation. This suggests that both Omar and Farooq Abdullah are already engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations to prevent the rebellion from becoming an organised political movement outside the party. Political analysts believe that the dissident legislators may continue to criticise the leadership, but are unlikely to formally split the National Conference. They understand that openly joining hands with the BJP could carry serious political consequences in the Kashmir Valley. The historical experience of the 1953 and 1984 rebellions is also an important consideration. On both occasions, internal divisions in the National Conference resulted in alternative political arrangements involving Congress support. However, the political circumstances in Kashmir today are very different. The BJP faces a major political challenge in the Kashmir Valley because of the widespread resentment following the August 2019 constitutional changes, when the Centre abrogated Article 370 and Article 35A and reorganised Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories. The National Conference has consistently maintained that restoration of special status and statehood remains central to its political position. Consequently, any attempt by dissident National Conference legislators to form a government with BJP support could expose them to serious political backlash among their constituents. Salman Sagar, son of senior National Conference leader and Cabinet Minister Ali Mohammad Sagar, has expressed confidence that the internal dispute will be resolved within the party. He has argued that the BJP's alleged Operation Lotus, which has been discussed in connection with political developments in Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra, will not succeed in Jammu and Kashmir. According to Salman Sagar, several agencies and BJP leaders may be attempting to exploit the differences within the National Conference, but their efforts will not succeed. He has also drawn attention to the Jammu visit of BJP national vice-president Ram Madhav, which coincided with the meeting of dissident National Conference legislators in Srinagar. Salman Sagar questioned Madhav's reported remarks suggesting that the BJP had its blessings behind the public meetings organised by Aga Syed Ruhullah. He believes that such statements reveal the BJP's interest in exploiting divisions within the ruling party. Salman Sagar further alleged that since the BJP came to power at the Centre, efforts have been made to weaken and divide the National Conference. He, however, acknowledged that the BJP had succeeded to some extent in weakening the party's political base in Jammu by inducting two prominent former National Conference leaders, Devender Singh Rana and Surjit Singh Slathia, into its ranks. But he remains convinced that a similar political strategy will not work in the Kashmir Valley. Kashmir-based political observers believe that Ram Madhav's reported statement about the BJP's blessings behind Ruhullah's public meetings could prove politically damaging for the former National Conference MP. They argue that once Ruhullah's political activities become associated with the BJP in the public perception, it could become difficult for him to maintain his independent political identity in the Kashmir Valley. Ruhullah has emerged as an important voice among sections of the Kashmiri electorate, particularly on the question of Article 370 and the political promises made during the 2024 Assembly elections. However, any perception that he is working in coordination with the BJP could complicate his political position. The dissident legislators are also aware of the political consequences of the 2014 alliance between the BJP and the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The BJP had formed a coalition government with the PDP under Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, followed by Mehbooba Mufti after his death. However, the PDP suffered a major electoral setback in the 2024 Assembly elections. Mehbooba Mufti's party was reduced to just three seats, reflecting the erosion of its political influence. Political observers believe that the National Conference dissidents would be reluctant to repeat the PDP's experience by entering into an alliance with the BJP. They also point to the political decline of several leaders who were once influential in Jammu and Kashmir but subsequently struggled to retain their political relevance. These include former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, former Deputy Chief Minister and PDP leader Muzaffar Hussain Baig, PDP leader , Dr Mehboob Beigh, Peoples Conference Chairman Sajad Gani Lone and Apni Party president Altaf Bukhari. The argument among political observers is that the dissident NC legislators know that breaking away from the party and aligning with the BJP would not necessarily guarantee them political survival. Moreover, without substantial political backing from New Delhi, they may find it difficult to split the National Conference and establish an alternative government. Muzaffar Ahmad Shah, vice-president of the Awami National Conference and son of former Chief Minister Ghulam Mohammad Shah, also believes that there is little possibility of the Omar Abdullah government collapsing at this stage. Interestingly, Muzaffar Shah is Dr Farooq Abdullah's nephew, but the two reportedly do not share cordial relations. Despite these family differences, Muzaffar Shah believes that the present dissident legislators do not have the political strength that the 12 rebel legislators possessed in 1984 when his father brought down Farooq Abdullah's government. He expects Dr Farooq Abdullah to cool down the dissidents during Friday's meeting and persuade them to remain within the party. According to political assessments, the party leadership may agree to some of their demands, particularly those concerning changes in the Chief Minister's advisory team and the distribution of Cabinet responsibilities. However, removing Deputy Chief Minister Surinder Choudhary altogether could prove politically difficult. Choudhary is currently the only Hindu minister in the Omar Abdullah Cabinet and represents an important political face for the government in the Jammu region. Political observers believe that the government may consider withdrawing the Public Works Department (PWD) portfolio from him or redistributing some of his responsibilities, while retaining him as Deputy Chief Minister. Such a compromise could allow the leadership to address some of the dissidents' concerns without creating another political controversy in Jammu. The numbers in the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly are another important factor in assessing the possibility of a government collapse. According to the political arithmetic cited by the ruling alliance, the National Conference has 41 MLAs, while Congress has six, the CPI(M) one and six independent legislators are supporting the government. This gives the ruling arrangement a strength of 54 legislators, against the 46 required for a simple majority in a fully constituted 90-member Assembly. National Conference(41 ) Congress (6 ), CPI(M) (1 ), Supporting independents (6) and Majority mark in 90-member House is 46 MLAs Political analysts argue that even if around 20 National Conference legislators resign, the government would not automatically collapse. The actual outcome would depend on whether the remaining legislators continue supporting Omar Abdullah and whether the resignations are formally accepted. There is, however, an important distinction in the Assembly arithmetic. If 20 NC legislators actually resign and their seats become vacant, the effective strength of the House would fall to 70 and the majority requirement would ordinarily become 36. But the government's support would also have to be recalculated: it cannot continue to count the support of legislators who have resigned. Therefore, the government could survive such a development only if it retained the support of at least the required number of remaining members. At present, however, there is no clear indication that the dissident legislators are preparing to resign from the Assembly. Their principal strategy appears to be putting pressure on the party leadership from within. For the past several months, BJP Legislature Party leader and Leader of Opposition Sunil Sharma has repeatedly predicted that the Omar Abdullah government would fall. However, when asked about the latest internal rebellion within the National Conference, Sharma has maintained that the BJP has nothing to do with the party's internal affairs. His position is significant because the National Conference leadership has been alleging that the BJP is attempting to exploit the situation to destabilise the elected government. The BJP, on the other hand, has publicly distanced itself from the internal developments within the ruling party. Political observers believe that Omar Abdullah's government is not facing an immediate threat of collapse, but the rebellion has exposed serious differences within the National Conference leadership. The dissident legislators appear determined to extract political concessions, including changes in the Cabinet, removal or curtailment of the influence of certain political advisers, and a renewed commitment to the restoration of Article 370, Article 35A and statehood. The November 6 meeting in Srinagar could determine whether the crisis is resolved through negotiations or develops into a prolonged confrontation between the party's younger leadership and its traditional political establishment. The National Conference has survived two major revolts against the Abdullah family in 1953 and 1984. On both occasions, the rebellion fundamentally changed the political direction of Jammu and Kashmir. The present crisis, however, is different. The dissidents are not yet openly seeking an alternative government, nor have they demonstrated the numbers necessary to bring down Omar Abdullah. Their immediate objective appears to be to force the Abdullah family to share political authority, reconsider its governing style and restore the party's focus on the promises made during the 2024 Assembly elections. The central political question is no longer simply whether Omar Abdullah will remain Chief Minister. It is whether the Abdullah family can continue to exercise unquestioned control over the National Conference, as it has done for generations. The November 6 meeting could provide the first clear indication of whether this third rebellion will end in a compromise or become another defining chapter in the eight-decade political history of the Abdullah family. (The Author is the former bureau chief at Aaj Tak TV, Jammu)